Years ago I wrote an article for an obscure technical publication. The paper introduced a model for understanding how and why companies adopt new technologies. Called the hype curve, this model contrasts proven versus unproven technologies. It presents a simple methodology to evaluate how useful various technologies are to organizations.
The hype curve concept found widespread success. It's been adopted and elaborated upon by the Gartner Group as their primary paradigm for understanding technology evolution (as hype cycles). Silicon valley venture capitalists employ it in evaluating and marketing technology. Groups as far away as the Tasmanian and Russian governments have used it for managing technological change.
Download my original paper from 1992 below, and see the best-selling book that uses the paper as a starting point.